Carbonate State Space

Conversational Description

Carbon dioxide, also called “$\ce{CO2}$”, is a gas produced by life and by burning fossil fuels (gas, oil, and coal, to name a few). The amount of $\ce{CO2}$ in the air around us is going up because we burn fossil fuels. This change is invisible to us, but it represents a big shift in the environment around us. For some living things, such as life in the oceans, it completely changes the environment around them. Imagine if suddenly your house had half as much food or water, or twice as much. You would probably change the way you live. In one case you might ration resources by taking fewer showers or eating smaller meals, but in the other you might need to worry about food spoiling or flooding your house. The goal of this project is to predict what sorts of changes are expected for life in the oceans, as $\ce{CO2}$ rises in the world.

When the amount of $\ce{CO2}$ in the air increases, the amount of $\ce{CO2}$ in the oceans will also increase. This is because the water in the ocean is good at absorbing $\ce{CO2}$ from the air above it. In both the air and in the water, when the amount of $\ce{CO2}$ increases, many other things also change. One thing we already see is that seawater is becoming acidic. Acids can wreak havoc on the tissues of living things like coral (remember when Walter White and Jesse used acid to dissolve something in Breaking Bad?). We don’t know yet what other aspects of the ocean will change, but we have an idea. Returning to the food and water example, if the amount of water in your house goes up, you should expect the wood in the walls to start rotting and mold to start growing. What else will happen in the ocean as the $\ce{CO2}$ levels go up?

In this project we’re going to focus on finding out what else we expect to change in the ocean as the amount of $\ce{CO2}$ increases. Specifically, we want to find out what changes will happen that will affect living things. All living things are made up of cells, and those cells have to move charged particles, like protons, in and out of themselves to stay alive. The “machinery” that cells use to do this are called “ion pumps”. Ion pumps work sort of like air conditioning in your house. In the same way your air conditioning adjusts the temperature of your home to keep you comfortable, ion pumps adjust the acidity in the cells to keep them happy. When the protons are pumped out of the cell, the water around the cell becomes more acidic. What if the water is already acidic? That will change how efficient the pump is. The effect on the cell’s chances of survival will depend on what it is using the pump for. So as a specific example we want to predict how the $\ce{CO2}$ in the air will work its way into the oceans and then influence the ion pumps living things depend on for survival.

Technical Description

The amount of $\ce{CO2}$ in the atmosphere is increasing as a result of human activity and feedback from the Earth system. The oceans, home to roughly $50\%$ of Earth’s primary biological production, absorb a large percentage of this $\ce{CO2}$, driving numerous changes in seawater chemistry. This project seeks to quantify the consequences of rising atmospheric $\ce{CO2}$ on chemical speciation in seawater, and to demonstrate how these predictions can be used to identify chemical changes that are likely to change selective pressure within marine ecosystems.

We will perform chemical speciation calculations of seawater under increasing concentrations of atmospheric $\ce{CO2}$ while accounting for uncertainty and variation within the composition of modern seawater. The resulting thermodynamic database will be unprecedented in its size and scope, and accompanied by novel tools designed to

  1. analyze and compare environmental measurements actively being generated from a host of globally distributed sampling stations;
  2. quantify the distance between different seawater compositions in all thermodynamic and compositional dimensions;
  3. estimate missing compositional data between disparate oceanic observations; and
  4. make thermodynamic predictions about future seawater compositions and their effect on biogeochemical cycles.

To demonstrate how these thermodynamic predictions can be used to understand the future of living systems in the ocean, we will use the dataset to estimate the expected change in energetic efficiencies of membrane ion pumps, which are ubiquitous in the biosphere.

Taken together, the results of this project will demonstrate a novel approach to understanding the integration of geochemical and biological systems by deploying high throughput thermodynamic calculations and demonstrating how they can be used to anticipate biological changes. This will power a new, data-driven paradigm for the prediction and study of anthropogenic changes in the biosphere.